SharpBetz
NCAAB

Georgia Bulldogs vs 25 Vanderbilt Commodores

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Georgia Bulldogs (19-8 (12-4)) traveling to take on No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores (21-6 (12-3)) at Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Vanderbilt averages 87.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Georgia defense typically allows (78.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Georgia offense puts up 90.2 PPG and faces a Vanderbilt defense allowing 73.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Vanderbilt will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Vanderbilt to win by approximately 7.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Vanderbilt winning by 21 to losing by 5. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Team Comparison

UGA Georgia
Stat
VAN Vanderbilt
19-8 (12-4)
Record
21-6 (12-3)
Last 10
90.2
PPG
87.2
78.4
Opp PPG
73.7

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UGA Georgia Bulldogs
+360 +9.5 O 169.5
VAN Vanderbilt Commodores
-470 -9.5 U 169.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 4:52 AM
Opening line: -8.5 / O/U 165.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
UGA Georgia Bulldogs
+221 +7.9 O 177.4
VAN Vanderbilt Commodores
-221 -7.9 U 177.4
Source: Model Updated: Feb 25, 6:03 AM

Our Picks

Spread
Pass
Model: -7.9 | Edge below threshold
Total
Over (opened at 165.5)
73% Confidence

Play to 176.6

Recent Trends

Vanderbilt has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-6 (12-3) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Vanderbilt have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Georgia comes in with an impressive 19-8 (12-4) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

Vanderbilt

Advantages

  • Strong 21-6 (12-3) overall record this season
  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Strong offense averaging 87.2 PPG

Disadvantages

  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Georgia

Advantages

  • Strong 19-8 (12-4) overall record this season
  • Potent offense averaging 90.2 PPG
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Defense allows 78.4 PPG — exploitable