Georgia Bulldogs vs 25 Vanderbilt Commodores
Thursday, February 26, 2026
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Georgia Bulldogs (19-8 (12-4)) traveling to take on No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores (21-6 (12-3)) at Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
On offense, Vanderbilt averages 87.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Georgia defense typically allows (78.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Georgia offense puts up 90.2 PPG and faces a Vanderbilt defense allowing 73.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Vanderbilt will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Vanderbilt to win by approximately 7.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Vanderbilt winning by 21 to losing by 5.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
UGA Georgia
Stat
VAN Vanderbilt
19-8 (12-4)
Record
21-6 (12-3)
Last 10
90.2
PPG
87.2
78.4
Opp PPG
73.7
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGA Georgia Bulldogs | +360 | +9.5 ↑ | O 169.5 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -470 | -9.5 ↓ | U 169.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 26, 4:52 AM
Opening line: -8.5 / O/U 165.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGA Georgia Bulldogs | +221 | +7.9 | O 177.4 |
| VAN Vanderbilt Commodores | -221 | -7.9 | U 177.4 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 25, 6:03 AM
Our Picks
Spread
Pass
Model: -7.9 | Edge below threshold
Total
Over (opened at 165.5)
73% Confidence
Play to 176.6
Recent Trends
Vanderbilt has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-6 (12-3) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Vanderbilt have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage.
Georgia comes in with an impressive 19-8 (12-4) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
Vanderbilt
Advantages
- Strong 21-6 (12-3) overall record this season
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Strong offense averaging 87.2 PPG
Disadvantages
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Georgia
Advantages
- Strong 19-8 (12-4) overall record this season
- Potent offense averaging 90.2 PPG
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Defense allows 78.4 PPG — exploitable