The Citadel Bulldogs vs Furman Paladins

This NCAAB matchup features The Citadel Bulldogs (9-21 (7-8)) traveling to take on Furman Paladins (19-11 (11-5)) at Timmons Arena, Greenville, SC. The Furman hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the The Citadel by 13.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Furman averages 76.5 points per game, but they face a The Citadel defense that holds opponents to 76.7 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, The Citadel scores 69.4 PPG but faces a Furman defense that limits opponents to 69.8 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Furman will look to leverage their home crowd. The Furman are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.4-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Furman winning by 23 to losing by 2. The market has this game at -16.5, but our model sees value on The Citadel with a 6.1-point edge. Our line: Furman -10.4. Combined with the total projection of 146 versus the market line of 138.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Furman enters at 19-11 (11-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for The Citadel at 9-21 (7-8). Traveling to face Furman presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.