San José State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons

This NCAAB matchup features San José State Spartans (8-20 (6-8)) traveling to take on Air Force Falcons (3-25 (3-14)) at Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO. The San José St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Air Force by 12.0 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Air Force averages 61.6 points per game, but they face a San José St defense that holds opponents to 77.5 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, San José St scores 70.7 PPG but faces a Air Force defense that limits opponents to 80.4 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Air Force will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects San José St to win by approximately 3.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Air Force winning by 9 to losing by 16. The market has this game at +6.5, but our model sees value on Air Force with a 3.2-point edge. Our line: Air Force +3.3. Combined with the total projection of 132 versus the market line of 141.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Air Force has struggled this season at 3-25 (3-14). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for San José St at 8-20 (6-8). Traveling to face Air Force presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.