1 Duke Blue Devils vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This NCAAB matchup features No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (26-2 (13-0)) traveling to take on Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-16 (9-6)) at Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN. The Duke hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Notre Dame by 19.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Notre Dame averages 74.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Duke defense typically allows (62.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Duke offense puts up 82.4 PPG and faces a Notre Dame defense allowing 74.4 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Notre Dame will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Duke to win by approximately 9.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Notre Dame winning by 4 to losing by 22. The market has this game at +14.5, but our model sees value on Notre Dame with a 5.5-point edge. Our line: Notre Dame +9.0. Combined with the total projection of 157 versus the market line of 139.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Notre Dame has struggled this season at 12-16 (9-6). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Duke comes in with an impressive 26-2 (13-0) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.