23 Saint Louis Billikens vs Dayton Flyers

This NCAAB matchup features No. 23 Saint Louis Billikens (25-3 (17-0)) traveling to take on Dayton Flyers (19-9 (14-2)) at UD Arena, Dayton, OH. The Saint Louis hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Dayton by 16.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Dayton averages 76.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Saint Louis defense typically allows (68.4 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Saint Louis offense puts up 90.1 PPG and faces a Dayton defense allowing 71.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Dayton will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Saint Louis to win by approximately 7.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Dayton winning by 6 to losing by 20. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Dayton enters at 19-9 (14-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Saint Louis comes in with an impressive 25-3 (17-0) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.