Northwestern Wildcats vs Indiana Hoosiers

This NCAAB matchup features Northwestern Wildcats (12-16 (8-7)) traveling to take on Indiana Hoosiers (17-11 (13-3)) at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN. The Indiana hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Northwestern by 6.3 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Indiana averages 79.7 points per game, which exceeds what the Northwestern defense typically allows (72.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Northwestern offense puts up 74.1 PPG and faces a Indiana defense allowing 72.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Indiana will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Indiana to win by approximately 3.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Indiana winning by 16 to losing by 9. The market has this game at -8.5, but our model sees value on Northwestern with a 4.7-point edge. Our line: Indiana -3.8. Combined with the total projection of 154 versus the market line of 147.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Indiana enters at 17-11 (13-3), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Northwestern at 12-16 (8-7). Traveling to face Indiana presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.