Buffalo Bulls vs Akron Zips

This NCAAB matchup features Buffalo Bulls (16-12 (6-7)) traveling to take on Akron Zips (23-5 (14-0)) at James A. Rhodes Arena, Akron, OH. The Akron hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Buffalo by 11.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Akron averages 89.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Buffalo defense typically allows (75.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Buffalo offense puts up 78.6 PPG and faces a Akron defense allowing 74.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Akron will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Akron to win by approximately 7.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Akron winning by 21 to losing by 5. The market has this game at -15.5, but our model sees value on Buffalo with a 7.6-point edge. Our line: Akron -7.9. Combined with the total projection of 168 versus the market line of 157.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Akron has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 23-5 (14-0) record. Their 23-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Akron have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Buffalo sits at 16-12 (6-7) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.