2 Arizona Wildcats vs Baylor Bears

This NCAAB matchup features No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (26-2 (14-1)) traveling to take on Baylor Bears (14-14 (10-6)) at Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX. The Arizona hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Baylor by 12.4 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Baylor averages 82.6 points per game, which exceeds what the Arizona defense typically allows (68.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Arizona offense puts up 87.2 PPG and faces a Baylor defense allowing 76.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Baylor will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Arizona to win by approximately 6.2 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Baylor winning by 6 to losing by 19. The market has this game at +12.5, but our model sees value on Baylor with a 6.3-point edge. Our line: Baylor +6.2. Combined with the total projection of 170 versus the market line of 152.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Baylor enters at 14-14 (10-6), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Arizona comes in with an impressive 26-2 (14-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.