Xavier Musketeers vs Butler Bulldogs

This NCAAB matchup features Xavier Musketeers (13-13 (11-5)) traveling to take on Butler Bulldogs (14-13 (9-6)) at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN. The Butler hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Xavier by 3.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Butler averages 80.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Xavier defense typically allows (79.0 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Xavier offense puts up 78.2 PPG and faces a Butler defense allowing 77.3 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Butler will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Butler to win by approximately 4.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Butler winning by 18 to losing by 10. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Butler enters at 14-13 (9-6), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Xavier sits at 13-13 (11-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.