12 Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels

This NCAAB matchup features No. 12 Florida Gators (20-6 (12-1)) traveling to take on Ole Miss Rebels (11-15 (7-5)) at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, MS. The Florida hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Ole Miss by 14.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Ole Miss averages 74.2 points per game, which exceeds what the Florida defense typically allows (71.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Florida offense puts up 86.1 PPG and faces a Ole Miss defense allowing 73.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Ole Miss will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Florida to win by approximately 6.0 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Ole Miss winning by 8 to losing by 20. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Ole Miss has struggled this season at 11-15 (7-5). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Florida comes in with an impressive 20-6 (12-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.