Creighton Bluejays vs 17 St. John's Red Storm

This NCAAB matchup features Creighton Bluejays (14-13 (10-4)) traveling to take on No. 17 St. John's Red Storm (21-5 (12-2)) at Madison Square Garden, New York, NY. The St John's hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Creighton by 10.9 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, St John's averages 84.0 points per game, which exceeds what the Creighton defense typically allows (75.5 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Creighton offense puts up 76.6 PPG and faces a St John's defense allowing 72.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and St John's will look to leverage their home crowd. The St John's are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 11.7-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from St John's winning by 25 to losing by 2. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

St John's has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 21-5 (12-2) record. Their 21-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the St John's have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Creighton sits at 14-13 (10-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.