Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars

This NCAAB matchup features Troy Trojans (18-10 (8-3)) traveling to take on South Alabama Jaguars (19-9 (8-3)) at Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, South Alabama averages 74.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Troy defense typically allows (74.7 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Troy offense puts up 81.5 PPG and faces a South Alabama defense allowing 70.1 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and South Alabama will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 2.7-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from South Alabama winning by 16 to losing by 11. The market has this game at +1.5, but our model sees value on South Alabama with a 4.2-point edge. Our line: South Alabama -2.7. Combined with the total projection of 156 versus the market line of 142.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

South Alabama enters at 19-9 (8-3), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Troy sits at 18-10 (8-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.