Texas State Bobcats vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

This NCAAB matchup features Texas State Bobcats (18-11 (15-1)) traveling to take on Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (9-19 (6-8)) at Cajundome, Lafayette, LA. The Texas St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Louisiana by 10.7 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Louisiana averages 62.9 points per game, but they face a Texas St defense that holds opponents to 71.2 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Texas St offense puts up 75.0 PPG and faces a Louisiana defense allowing 69.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Louisiana will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Texas St to win by approximately 4.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Louisiana winning by 9 to losing by 18. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Louisiana has struggled this season at 9-19 (6-8). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Texas St sits at 18-11 (15-1) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.