SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs Tennessee State Tigers

This NCAAB matchup features SIU Edwardsville Cougars (17-11 (8-5)) traveling to take on Tennessee State Tigers (18-9 (9-2)) at Gentry Center, Nashville, TN. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Tennessee St averages 81.1 points per game, which exceeds what the SIUE defense typically allows (64.9 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, SIUE scores 71.5 PPG but faces a Tennessee St defense that limits opponents to 76.3 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Tennessee St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Tennessee St to win by approximately 3.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Tennessee St winning by 17 to losing by 10. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Tennessee St enters at 18-9 (9-2), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. SIUE sits at 17-11 (8-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.