San José State Spartans vs Boise State Broncos

This NCAAB matchup features San José State Spartans (7-19 (6-8)) traveling to take on Boise State Broncos (15-11 (9-4)) at ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID. The Boise St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the San José St by 10.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Boise St averages 78.4 points per game, which exceeds what the San José St defense typically allows (77.1 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, San José St scores 70.8 PPG but faces a Boise St defense that limits opponents to 74.6 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Boise St will look to leverage their home crowd. The Boise St are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 10.8-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Boise St winning by 24 to losing by 3. The market has this game at -16.5, but our model sees value on San José St with a 5.7-point edge. Our line: Boise St -10.8. Combined with the total projection of 149 versus the market line of 146.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Boise St enters at 15-11 (9-4), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for San José St at 7-19 (6-8). Traveling to face Boise St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.