Samford Bulldogs vs Mercer Bears

This NCAAB matchup features Samford Bulldogs (16-12 (9-3)) traveling to take on Mercer Bears (17-11 (12-1)) at Hawkins Arena, Macon, GA. The Mercer hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Samford by 4.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Mercer averages 83.1 points per game, which exceeds what the Samford defense typically allows (74.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Samford offense puts up 78.2 PPG and faces a Mercer defense allowing 75.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Mercer will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Mercer to win by approximately 5.6 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Mercer winning by 19 to losing by 8. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Mercer enters at 17-11 (12-1), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Samford sits at 16-12 (9-3) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.