Radford Highlanders vs UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Saturday, February 21, 2026
Final Score Radford 73 - UNC Asheville 74
Spread:
Total: L
Matchup Analysis
This NCAAB matchup features Radford Highlanders (15-13 (11-5)) traveling to take on UNC Asheville Bulldogs (12-15 (7-6)) at Kimmel Arena, Asheville, NC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way.
UNC Asheville averages 72.9 points per game, but they face a Radford defense that holds opponents to 78.9 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. The Radford offense puts up 82.2 PPG and faces a UNC Asheville defense allowing 71.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one.
Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UNC Asheville will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 0.9-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UNC Asheville winning by 14 to losing by 13.
Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.
Team Comparison
RAD Radford
Stat
UNCA UNC Asheville
15-13 (11-5)
Record
12-15 (7-6)
Last 10
82.2
PPG
72.9
78.9
Opp PPG
71.9
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAD Radford Highlanders | +120 ↓ | +2.5 | O 149.5 |
| UNCA UNC Asheville Bulldogs | -142 ↑ | -2.5 | U 149.5 |
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 22, 9:05 PM
Opening line: -2.5 / O/U 149.5
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAD Radford Highlanders | +113 | +0.9 | O 155 |
| UNCA UNC Asheville Bulldogs | -113 | -0.9 | U 155 |
Source: Model Updated: Feb 21, 5:08 PM
Our Picks
Spread
Pass
Model: -0.9 | Edge below threshold
Total
L
Over (opened at 149.5)
61% Confidence
Recent Trends
UNC Asheville has struggled this season at 12-15 (7-6). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset.
Radford sits at 15-13 (11-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win.
When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.
Matchup Edges
UNC Asheville
Advantages
- Home court advantage and crowd support
- Familiarity with home venue and routines
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 12-15 (7-6) raises concerns
- Potential for inconsistency in key moments
Radford
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 82.2 PPG
- Nothing to lose as the visiting team
- Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road without home crowd support
- Defense allows 78.9 PPG — exploitable