Pepperdine Waves vs Oregon State Beavers

This NCAAB matchup features Pepperdine Waves (8-20 (6-9)) traveling to take on Oregon State Beavers (14-14 (10-5)) at Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR. The Oregon St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pepperdine by 4.5 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. Oregon St averages 70.2 points per game, but they face a Pepperdine defense that holds opponents to 79.3 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Pepperdine scores 71.5 PPG but faces a Oregon St defense that limits opponents to 73.5 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Oregon St will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Oregon St to win by approximately 6.1 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Oregon St winning by 20 to losing by 7. The market has this game at -9.5, but our model sees value on Pepperdine with a 3.4-point edge. Our line: Oregon St -6.1. Combined with the total projection of 142 versus the market line of 147.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Oregon St enters at 14-14 (10-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. It's been a difficult season for Pepperdine at 8-20 (6-9). Traveling to face Oregon St presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.