Pennsylvania Quakers vs Yale Bulldogs

This NCAAB matchup features Pennsylvania Quakers (13-10 (10-2)) traveling to take on Yale Bulldogs (20-4 (8-2)) at John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT. The Yale hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Penn by 9.8 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Yale averages 83.3 points per game, which exceeds what the Penn defense typically allows (74.6 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Penn offense puts up 76.6 PPG and faces a Yale defense allowing 71.5 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Yale will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Yale to win by approximately 9.8 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Yale winning by 23 to losing by 4. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Yale has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 20-4 (8-2) record. Their 20-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Yale have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Penn sits at 13-10 (10-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.