Pacific Tigers vs 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs

This NCAAB matchup features Pacific Tigers (17-12 (11-2)) traveling to take on No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-2 (13-0)) at McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA. The Gonzaga hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Pacific by 15.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Gonzaga averages 87.4 points per game, which exceeds what the Pacific defense typically allows (68.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Pacific offense puts up 74.0 PPG and faces a Gonzaga defense allowing 66.9 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Gonzaga will look to leverage their home crowd. The Gonzaga are heavy favorites in this one, with our model projecting a 13.5-point advantage. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Gonzaga winning by 27 to losing by 0. The market has this game at -21.5, but our model sees value on Pacific with a 8.0-point edge. Our line: Gonzaga -13.5. Combined with the total projection of 161 versus the market line of 144.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Gonzaga has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 26-2 (13-0) record. Their 26-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Gonzaga have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Pacific sits at 17-12 (11-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.