Missouri Tigers vs 20 Arkansas Razorbacks

This NCAAB matchup features Missouri Tigers (18-8 (14-2)) traveling to take on No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks (19-7 (14-1)) at Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR. The Arkansas hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Missouri by 6.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Arkansas averages 89.8 points per game, which exceeds what the Missouri defense typically allows (74.5 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Missouri offense puts up 80.1 PPG and faces a Arkansas defense allowing 78.0 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Arkansas will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Arkansas to win by approximately 6.3 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Arkansas winning by 20 to losing by 7. The market has this game at -9.5, but our model sees value on Missouri with a 3.2-point edge. Our line: Arkansas -6.3. Combined with the total projection of 170 versus the market line of 160.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Arkansas has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 19-7 (14-1) record. Their 19-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. They've been solid on both ends of the floor and will look to continue that form in front of their home fans. Missouri sits at 18-8 (14-2) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.