1 Michigan Wolverines vs 3 Duke Blue Devils

This NCAAB matchup features No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (25-1 (12-1)) traveling to take on No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (24-2 (13-0)) at Capital One Arena, Washington, DC. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, Duke averages 83.0 points per game, which exceeds what the Michigan defense typically allows (68.8 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Michigan offense puts up 90.6 PPG and faces a Duke defense allowing 63.2 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Duke will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model sees this as essentially a coin-flip game, projecting just a 1.1-point margin. Expect a tight finish. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Duke winning by 15 to losing by 12. The market has this game at +2.5, but our model sees value on Duke with a 3.5-point edge. Our line: Duke -1.1. Combined with the total projection of 174 versus the market line of 150.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Duke has been one of the more consistent teams this season with a 24-2 (13-0) record. Their 24-win campaign speaks to the quality of play they've maintained throughout the year. At home, the Duke have been particularly strong, using crowd energy and familiarity to their advantage. Michigan comes in with an impressive 25-1 (12-1) record. They've been among the best teams in their conference and are playing with the confidence of a squad that expects to win. Road games can be tricky, but this team has the poise to handle hostile environments. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.