SharpBetz
NCAAB

Maine Black Bears vs New Hampshire Wildcats

Saturday, February 21, 2026

Final Score Maine 61 - New Hampshire 58
Spread: Total:

Matchup Analysis

This NCAAB matchup features Maine Black Bears (6-21 (4-7)) traveling to take on New Hampshire Wildcats (8-17 (7-4)) at Lundholm Gymnasium, Durham, NH. These two teams are closely matched, with both squads posting similar scoring differentials this season. This projects as a competitive contest that could go either way. On offense, New Hampshire averages 69.5 points per game, which exceeds what the Maine defense typically allows (69.3 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. Meanwhile, Maine scores 62.6 PPG but faces a New Hampshire defense that limits opponents to 74.4 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and New Hampshire will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects New Hampshire to win by approximately 3.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from New Hampshire winning by 18 to losing by 10. Our model aligns closely with the market on this one, suggesting the oddsmakers have priced this game efficiently. Look for small edges in the total and moneyline markets to capitalize on any remaining value.

Team Comparison

ME Maine
Stat
UNH New Hampshire
6-21 (4-7)
Record
8-17 (7-4)
Last 10
62.6
PPG
69.5
69.3
Opp PPG
74.4

Current Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
ME Maine Black Bears
+136 +3.5 O 135.5
UNH New Hampshire Wildcats
-162 -3.5 U 135.5
Source: Draft Kings Updated: Feb 22, 9:05 PM
Opening line: -3.5 / O/U 135.5

Model Projection

Team Moneyline Spread Total
ME Maine Black Bears
+163 +3.9 O 132
UNH New Hampshire Wildcats
-163 -3.9 U 132
Source: Model Updated: Feb 21, 5:08 PM

Our Picks

Spread
Pass
Model: -3.9 | Edge below threshold
Total
Pass
Model: 132 | Edge below threshold

Recent Trends

New Hampshire has struggled this season at 8-17 (7-4). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. It's been a difficult season for Maine at 6-21 (4-7). Traveling to face New Hampshire presents a significant challenge, though every game is a chance to build for the future. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.

Matchup Edges

New Hampshire

Advantages

  • Home court advantage and crowd support
  • Familiarity with home venue and routines

Disadvantages

  • Sub-.500 record at 8-17 (7-4) raises concerns
  • Potential for inconsistency in key moments

Maine

Advantages

  • Nothing to lose as the visiting team
  • Road underdog motivation — play with less pressure

Disadvantages

  • Playing on the road without home crowd support
  • Struggling with a 6-21 (4-7) record this season

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