Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UL Monroe Warhawks

This NCAAB matchup features Arkansas State Red Wolves (17-11 (9-4)) traveling to take on UL Monroe Warhawks (4-24 (3-9)) at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, Monroe, LA. The Arkansas St hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the UL Monroe by 16.2 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. UL Monroe averages 72.3 points per game, but they face a Arkansas St defense that holds opponents to 77.0 PPG. The visitors' defensive prowess could limit the home team's scoring output. Meanwhile, Arkansas St scores 82.4 PPG but faces a UL Monroe defense that limits opponents to 83.1 PPG. The home team's defensive effort could be the difference-maker. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and UL Monroe will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Arkansas St to win by approximately 6.9 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from UL Monroe winning by 7 to losing by 20. The market has this game at +14.5, but our model sees value on UL Monroe with a 7.7-point edge. Our line: UL Monroe +6.9. Combined with the total projection of 155 versus the market line of 164.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

UL Monroe has struggled this season at 4-24 (3-9). The wins have been hard to come by, and the team is looking for answers on both ends of the floor. Home court advantage will be critical for any chance at pulling off an upset. Arkansas St sits at 17-11 (9-4) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.