Arizona State Sun Devils vs Baylor Bears

This NCAAB matchup features Arizona State Sun Devils (14-12 (8-5)) traveling to take on Baylor Bears (13-13 (9-5)) at Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX. The Baylor hold a clear statistical edge this season, outperforming the Arizona St by 6.6 points per game in scoring margin. That differential will be a key factor in this matchup. On offense, Baylor averages 83.0 points per game, which exceeds what the Arizona St defense typically allows (78.7 PPG). That mismatch could give the home side opportunities to exploit. The Arizona St offense puts up 78.5 PPG and faces a Baylor defense allowing 76.7 PPG. The visitors have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Home court advantage is worth approximately 3.5 points in NCAAB, and Baylor will look to leverage their home crowd. Our model projects Baylor to win by approximately 4.7 points. The 68% confidence interval ranges from Baylor winning by 18 to losing by 9. The market has this game at -7.5, but our model sees value on Arizona St with a 2.8-point edge. Our line: Baylor -4.7. Combined with the total projection of 162 versus the market line of 157.5, there are opportunities to find value on both sides of this matchup.

Baylor enters at 13-13 (9-5), hovering around the .500 mark. They've shown flashes of strong play but haven't been able to sustain consistency. At home, they'll look to put together a complete performance and build momentum. Arizona St sits at 14-12 (8-5) on the season. They've been competitive in most outings but have had their share of inconsistent performances. On the road, they'll need to bring their best effort to come away with a win. When these teams meet, the home team typically has the edge given the crowd advantage and familiarity factor. The team that controls tempo and limits turnovers will likely dictate the outcome of this matchup.