Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the injury list, which strips the Spurs of forwards Tobias Harris (F) and Jayden Quaintance (F) while the Warriors lose their floor general Stephen Curry (G), leaving the home side with two out and the visitors with one out.
San Antonio’s ATS trend tells a story of dominance: the Spurs sit 11-2 straight up as a double‑digit favorite, a win percentage of .846 across a sample size of 13 games, underscoring their ability to cover sizable spreads.
From a shooting standpoint the numbers favor the visitors. The Spurs register a three‑point clip of 34.906 and a field‑goal percentage of 46.503, whereas the Warriors post 39.6 from beyond the arc and 47.11 overall. The model projects a spread of –8.3 for the home team, while the market has already set the spread at –11.5, indicating the Warriors are being given a generous cushion.
Pick: Warriors +11.5 (play).
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS Golden State Warriors | +501 | +11.5 | O 220.5 |
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -700 | -11.5 | U 220.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS Golden State Warriors | +322 | +8.3 | O 238.5 |
| SA San Antonio Spurs | -322 | -8.3 | U 238.5 |
Injury-adjusted spread: -8.3
Injury-adjusted total: 238.5
Our Picks
Play to +9.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+220.50): This factor contributes +220.50 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Combined Tempo (+114.50): This factor contributes +114.50 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
- Common Opponent Performance (+16.00): When playing common opponents, Spurs outperformed by a 16.00-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Home Streak (+9.00): This factor contributes +9.00 to the projection, favoring Spurs.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Spurs Trends:
- San Antonio Spurs is 11-2 straight up double-digit favorite
- The over is 2-8 in San Antonio Spurs's games in their last 10 games
- San Antonio Spurs is 21-9 straight up at home as a favorite
- The over is 3-9 in San Antonio Spurs's games at home after a loss
- San Antonio Spurs is 29-15 straight up at home after a loss
Warriors Trends:
- Golden State Warriors is 2-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 5-0 in Golden State Warriors's games on the road on a back-to-back
- Golden State Warriors is 2-10 straight up underdog
- The over is 5-0 in Golden State Warriors's games on a back-to-back
- Golden State Warriors is 1-4 ATS on the road after a win
Head-to-Head:
- San Antonio Spurs is 3-0 straight up on the road vs Golden State Warriors
- San Antonio Spurs is 1-3 straight up at home vs Golden State Warriors
Matchup Edges
Spurs
Advantages
- Strong 10-2 (4-2) overall record (83% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 119.2 PPG
- Riding a 9-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 80% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 119.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (108.0 PPG) by 11.3
- Model sees 3.2-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 108.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Warriors
Advantages
- Strong 8-4 (6-1) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 119.3 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -3.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 33% away from home
- Facing a home offense (119.2 PPG) that exceeds road defense (111.5 PPG) by 7.7