Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in tonight’s Bulls‑Hawks clash is the divergent shooting profile, with Chicago shooting 28.922 % from three‑point range and 43.722 % overall from the field, while Atlanta posts 35.182 % from beyond the arc and 45.329 % overall. Those percentages set the tone for a game where perimeter efficiency will likely dictate the flow.
Injury news further tilts the balance: the Bulls are without forwards Tobe Awaka and Caleb Wilson, while the Hawks miss forward Mouhamed Gueye. Chicago carries two players out, Atlanta only one, a disparity that could influence rotations and interior presence on both sides of the paint.
The scoring margin gap underscores the disparity in recent performance. Chicago averages 113.3 points while allowing 128.8, a negative margin of –15.5. Atlanta scores 118.25 points and concedes 116.167, yielding a positive margin of 2.083. The resulting gap of –17.583 points highlights a substantial advantage for the visitors in overall efficiency.
The analysis strength is pass, indicating there is no line and no side to take.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -290 | -7.5 | O 245.5 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +236 | +7.5 | U 245.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Atlanta Hawks | -309 | -8.4 | O 231.6 |
| CHI Chicago Bulls | +309 | +8.4 | U 231.6 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +8.4
Injury-adjusted total: 231.6
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+245.50): This factor contributes +245.50 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- Combined Tempo (+119.13): This factor contributes +119.13 to the projection, favoring Bulls.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-17.65): This factor contributes -17.65 to the projection, favoring Hawks.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-17.58): Hawks's scoring margin advantage of 17.58 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Bulls Trends:
- Chicago Bulls is 5-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Chicago Bulls is 6-0 ATS vs teams above .500
- Chicago Bulls is 5-0 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Chicago Bulls is 4-17 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Chicago Bulls is 2-9 straight up underdog
Hawks Trends:
- Atlanta Hawks is 6-1 straight up favorite
- Atlanta Hawks is 4-1 ATS in conference games
- Atlanta Hawks is 5-2 ATS favorite
- Atlanta Hawks is 2-5 ATS after a loss
- The over is 2-5 in Atlanta Hawks's games favorite
Head-to-Head:
- Chicago Bulls is 3-1 straight up on the road vs Atlanta Hawks
Matchup Edges
Bulls
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +245.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -15.5 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-9 (0-4) (10% win rate)
- Defense allows 128.8 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.1 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- On a 7-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Hawks
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 118.2 PPG
- 5-day rest advantage over opponent's 3 days
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- SOS-Adjusted Margin contributes -17.65 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 116.2 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Averaging 116.2 PPG allowed on defense