New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are shorthanded at guard, with Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard all listed as out, leaving a home_out_count of 3 while the Knicks have an away_out_count of 0. Losing three primary ball‑handlers at home hurts the Indy side’s ability to generate offense and defend the perimeter, a factor that cannot be ignored in a spread contest.

Indiana Pacers is 1‑12 straight up underdog, a record that translates to a win_pct of 0.077 over a sample_size of 13. The straight_up description “Indiana Pacers is 1‑12 straight up underdog” underscores a season‑long struggle to compete against the spread, suggesting that even a modest line offers little value.

The shooting profile shows the Pacers hitting a home_three_pct of 33.258 and a home_fg_pct of 46.821, while the Knicks post an away_three_pct of 36.242 and an away_fg_pct of 43.648. The Knicks’ edge from beyond the arc and comparable field‑goal efficiency further widens the gap created by Indianapolis’ missing guards.

The model’s assessment is a pass, so there is no line and no side to take. The strength label remains pass.

Key Matchup Factors:

• Market Total Signal (+218.50): This factor contributes +218.50 to the projection, favoring Pacers.
• Combined Tempo (+109.83): This factor contributes +109.83 to the projection, favoring Pacers.
• Common Opponent Performance (-21.75): When playing common opponents, Knicks outperformed by a 21.75-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
• Pace Mismatch (+11.86): A 11.86-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Pacers's preferred tempo likely to dominate.

Pacers Trends:

• Indiana Pacers is 1-12 straight up underdog
• Indiana Pacers is 0-8 straight up double-digit underdog
• The over is 2-8 in Indiana Pacers's games in their last 10 games
• Indiana Pacers is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games
• Indiana Pacers is 6-14 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak

Knicks Trends:

• The over is 2-9 in New York Knicks's games on the road as an underdog
• The over is 1-8 in New York Knicks's games vs teams below .500
• New York Knicks is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
• The over is 2-9 in New York Knicks's games underdog
• The over is 2-8 in New York Knicks's games with 3+ days rest