Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the Pelicans missing two front‑court starters while the Grizzlies lose only one center. Trendon Watford (F) and Yves Missi (C) are both out for New Orleans, leaving the home team with a home_out_count of 2. Memphis is shorthanded by a single loss, Quinten Post (C), reflected in an away_out_count of 1.
Shooting splits further tilt the balance. The Pelicans have posted a home_three_pct of 33.136 and a home_fg_pct of 47.287, whereas the Grizzlies are converting at an away_three_pct of 38.851 and an away_fg_pct of 46.443. The higher three‑point efficiency on the road gives Memphis a clear edge from beyond the arc, while overall field‑goal percentages remain tightly matched.
Betting trends underscore New Orleans’ struggles against quality opposition. The Pelicans sit at 9-28 straight up after a loss versus a winning team, a win_pct of 0.243 across a sample_size of 37 games. That record highlights a pronounced inability to cover when the opponent is strong, reinforcing doubts about the home side’s competitiveness in this contest.
Pick: Grizzlies -3.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -166 | -3.5 | O 235.5 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +140 | +3.5 | U 235.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM Memphis Grizzlies | -170 | -6.2 | O 234.8 |
| NO New Orleans Pelicans | +170 | +6.2 | U 234.8 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +6.2
Injury-adjusted total: 234.8
Our Picks
Play to -5.3
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+235.50): This factor contributes +235.50 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Combined Tempo (+117.75): This factor contributes +117.75 to the projection, favoring Pelicans.
- Common Opponent Performance (-14.50): When playing common opponents, Grizzlies outperformed by a 14.50-point margin, providing a transitive comparison signal.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-13.33): Grizzlies's scoring margin advantage of 13.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Pelicans Trends:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-1 ATS at home as a favorite
- The over is 0-7 in New Orleans Pelicans's games vs teams above .500
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-1 straight up at home as a favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 6-1 ATS favorite
- New Orleans Pelicans is 9-28 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Grizzlies Trends:
- Memphis Grizzlies is 6-0 ATS on the road after a win
- Memphis Grizzlies is 6-0 ATS after a win
- Memphis Grizzlies is 0-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- The over is 1-5 in Memphis Grizzlies's games on the road after a win
- The over is 4-1 in Memphis Grizzlies's games after a loss vs a winning team
Head-to-Head:
- New Orleans Pelicans is 1-3 straight up at home vs Memphis Grizzlies
- New Orleans Pelicans is 3-6 straight up vs Memphis Grizzlies
Matchup Edges
Pelicans
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 116.9 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +235.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 4-8 (3-4) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 124.2 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Grizzlies
Advantages
- Strong 7-4 (2-4) record (64% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 117.9 PPG
- Road win rate of 100% -- proven road warriors
- Common Opponent Performance contributes -14.50 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Facing a home offense (116.9 PPG) that exceeds road defense (111.9 PPG) by 5.0
- Averaging 111.9 PPG allowed on defense