Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story heading into the game is the injury list, with two Kings starters sidelined and a Trail Blazers guard also out. Maxime Raynaud (C) and Ben Simmons (G) are out for Sacramento, while Chris Youngblood (G) sits on the Portland side, leaving the home club with two absences and the visitors with one.
Sacramento is averaging 108.273 points while conceding 121.0, yielding a –12.727 margin; Portland is scoring 119.545 and allowing 112.273 for a +7.273 margin, a gap of –20.0 points. The disparity in both offense and defense underscores a clear advantage for the Trail Blazers, who have already posted a positive margin despite a modest sample.
Portland Trail Blazers is 2‑12 straight up with 3+ days rest, a record of 2‑12 and a win percentage of 0.143 over a sample size of 14. The Blazers have struggled to convert rest into victories, compounding concerns about their ability to cover any spread.
Given the injury depletion, the stark scoring disparity, and Portland’s abysmal 2‑12 straight‑up record despite extra rest, there is no viable line to take; the recommendation is to pass.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR Portland Trail Blazers | -497 | -10.5 | O 228.5 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +380 | +10.5 | U 228.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR Portland Trail Blazers | -214 | -8.6 | O 227.8 |
| SAC Sacramento Kings | +214 | +8.6 | U 227.8 |
Injury-adjusted spread: +8.6
Injury-adjusted total: 227.8
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+228.50): This factor contributes +228.50 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Combined Tempo (+115.27): This factor contributes +115.27 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-20.00): Trail Blazers's scoring margin advantage of 20.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-19.78): This factor contributes -19.78 to the projection, favoring Trail Blazers.
Injury Calculator
Toggle player statuses to see how injuries affect the projected spread and total.
Adjusted Projection
Recent Trends
Kings Trends:
- Sacramento Kings is 3-12 straight up underdog
- Sacramento Kings is 1-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- Sacramento Kings is 10-25 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Sacramento Kings is 20-38 straight up vs teams above .500
- Sacramento Kings is 7-14 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
Trail Blazers Trends:
- Portland Trail Blazers is 2-12 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Portland Trail Blazers is 7-1 straight up favorite
- The over is 2-9 in Portland Trail Blazers's games vs teams below .500
- Portland Trail Blazers is 4-1 ATS in conference games
- Portland Trail Blazers is 16-34 straight up vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head:
- Sacramento Kings is 0-4 straight up on the road vs Portland Trail Blazers
- Sacramento Kings is 3-7 straight up vs Portland Trail Blazers
Matchup Edges
Kings
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.0 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +228.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -12.7 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-10 (0-6) (9% win rate)
- Defense allows 121.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Turnover-prone at 16.2 per game, creating extra opportunities for opponents
- On a 4-game losing streak -- confidence is fragile
Trail Blazers
Advantages
- Strong 8-3 (3-2) record (73% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 119.5 PPG
- Road win rate of 83% -- proven road warriors
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -20.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.0 point of home court advantage
- Averaging 112.3 PPG allowed on defense