Minnesota Wild vs Seattle Kraken
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in Seattle versus Minnesota is the contrasting goalie duo.
Joey Daccord guards the Kraken net with a .896 save percentage and a 2.96 goals‑against average, while Jesper Wallstedt backs the Wild at .914 and 2.53. Both starters are listed as unconfirmed, but the raw numbers already tilt the glass‑door advantage toward Minnesota’s better saver.
The Wild’s over‑under trend adds another layer of confidence. In the 21 games against opponents above .500, the over has hit 17‑4, translating to an .81 win‑percentage when totals exceed expectations. That 17‑4 record underscores a pattern of high‑scoring affairs that could easily push the game total beyond the posted line.
From a market versus model perspective, the moneyline sits at –155 for Minnesota, while the model assigns the Wild a 0.64 win probability, generating a modest edge of .032. The market’s valuation aligns with the model’s view, reinforcing the attractiveness of the away side.
The pick is the Minnesota Wild on the moneyline at -155, a play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Joey Daccord (Kraken) and Jesper Wallstedt (Wild) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Minnesota Wild | -155 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| SEA Seattle Kraken | +130 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Minnesota Wild | -177 | -1.4 | O 6.7 |
| SEA Seattle Kraken | +177 | +1.4 | U 6.7 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Kraken.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-4.27): This factor contributes -4.27 to the projection, favoring Wild.
- Home Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Kraken.
- Away Streak (-2.00): This factor contributes -2.00 to the projection, favoring Wild.
Recent Trends
Kraken Trends:
- The over is 1-6 in Seattle Kraken's games at home as a favorite
- The over is 1-6 in Seattle Kraken's games favorite
- The over is 8-2 in Seattle Kraken's games in their last 10 games
- Seattle Kraken is 10-5 ATS after a win
- The over is 2-5 in Seattle Kraken's games with 3+ days rest
Wild Trends:
- The over is 20-5 in Minnesota Wild's games on the road after a win
- The over is 5-0 in Minnesota Wild's games on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 20-5 in Minnesota Wild's games after a win
- The over is 17-4 in Minnesota Wild's games vs teams above .500
- The over is 6-0 in Minnesota Wild's games on a 3+ game win streak
Head-to-Head:
- Seattle Kraken is 0-3 straight up vs Minnesota Wild
- Seattle Kraken is 1-2 ATS vs Minnesota Wild
- The over is 1-2 in Seattle Kraken's games vs Minnesota Wild
Matchup Edges
Kraken
Advantages
- Strong 7-3-1 (3-1-0) overall record (70% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 3.8 GPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending allows 3.4 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.896 save percentage
- Model win probability of only 36% despite home advantage
Wild
Advantages
- Strong 6-3-2 (4-0-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Stout goaltending allowing just 2.5 GPG
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -4.27 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Road win rate of only 17% away from home
- Averaging 2.5 GPG allowed on defense