Los Angeles Kings vs New Jersey Devils
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The goalie matchup pits Jacob Markstrom against Darcy Kuemper, a factor that could tilt the game. Markstrom carries a .883 save percentage and a 2.95 goals‑against average, while Kuemper posts a .9 save percentage with a 2.68 goals‑against average; both starters remain unconfirmed.
The market line of -166 on the Devils‑Kings moneyline aligns with a model‑derived win probability of 0.701 for New Jersey, creating an edge of 0.076 in favor of the home side. The signal tags the pick as a “play,” reinforcing confidence that the odds undervalue the Devils’ true chances.
Off the ice, New Jersey scores 3.3 points per game while conceding 3.1, whereas Los Angeles averages 2.5 points and yields 3.625. The Devils hold a modest +0.2 margin, the Kings sit at -1.125, and the gap between the clubs stands at 1.325 points, underscoring the home team’s slight offensive edge.
The recommendation lands on the Devils at -166, a “play” according to the model’s assessment.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Jacob Markstrom (Devils) and Darcy Kuemper (Kings) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Los Angeles Kings | +140 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| NJ New Jersey Devils | -166 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Los Angeles Kings | +234 | +0.9 | O 5.8 |
| NJ New Jersey Devils | -234 | -0.9 | U 5.8 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Shots Per Game Diff (+5.90): This factor contributes +5.90 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Home Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Away Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Devils.
Recent Trends
With a 6-4-0 (5-2-0) record, Devils has been the definition of inconsistent. They've shown they can compete with top teams but have also been vulnerable.
Kings comes in limping at 2-4-2 (0-3-0) this season. Road trips against quality opponents have been particularly unkind.
Venue splits matter: Devils wins 71% at home while Kings wins 40% on the road. The gap between home and away performance can be a decisive factor.
Matchup Edges
Devils
Advantages
- Strong 6-4-0 (5-2-0) overall record (60% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 71% win rate at this venue
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes +5.90 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.880 save percentage
- Model sees 0.6-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 3.1 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Kings
Advantages
- Goals Against Diff contributes -0.52 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -1.1 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 30%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Struggling with a 2-4-2 (0-3-0) record (33% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.6 GPG -- exploitable on the road