Nashville Predators vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest factor is the market moneyline undervaluing the Penguins, with an edge of 0.189 versus a model win probability of 0.775. The home side is listed at -142 on the board, yet the model assigns a 77.5% chance of victory, creating a clear value opportunity for bettors.
A contrasting narrative emerges from Nashville’s recent form against the spread. After each loss the Predators have gone 14-2 ATS, a win‑percentage of 0.875 over the last 16 games. That streak suggests the team often rebounds quickly, covering spreads even when the result is a defeat, which could temper the allure of a straight moneyline bet on Pittsburgh.
The goalie duel adds another layer of nuance. Arturs Silovs posts a save percentage of 0.893 and a goals‑against average of 2.85, while Juuse Saros records a slightly higher save percentage of 0.903 and a GAA of 2.89. Both netminders are listed as unconfirmed, but the marginal statistical edge belongs to the home net, hinting that the Penguins may keep the score low enough to protect the moneyline.
The pick is Penguins -142, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Arturs Silovs (Penguins) and Juuse Saros (Predators) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSH Nashville Predators | +120 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| PIT Pittsburgh Penguins | -142 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSH Nashville Predators | +345 | +2.2 | O 5.8 |
| PIT Pittsburgh Penguins | -345 | -2.2 | U 5.8 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Penguins.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-3.09): This factor contributes -3.09 to the projection, favoring Predators.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+2.04): This factor contributes +2.04 to the projection, favoring Penguins.
- Home Ice (+1.00): This factor contributes +1.00 to the projection, favoring Penguins.
Recent Trends
Penguins Trends:
- Pittsburgh Penguins is 2-8 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Pittsburgh Penguins is 9-2 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Pittsburgh Penguins is 7-15 ATS at home as a favorite
- Pittsburgh Penguins is 7-15 ATS favorite
- Pittsburgh Penguins is 6-13 ATS vs teams above .500
Predators Trends:
- Nashville Predators is 8-0 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Nashville Predators is 14-2 ATS after a loss
- Nashville Predators is 25-8 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 1-6 in Nashville Predators's games on the road on a back-to-back
- Nashville Predators is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
Matchup Edges
Penguins
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 4-6-1 (3-1-0) (40% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.4 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.884 save percentage
Predators
Advantages
- Faceoff Pct Diff contributes -3.09 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.6 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 22%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Model win probability of just 22% on the road