Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is that the moneyline market at +150 for the Maple Leafs carries a 0.193 edge over the model’s 0.593 win probability. In a market versus model comparison the away side is favored with a clear advantage, and the signal’s strength is “play.”
The over/under trend for Edmonton shows the over is 12-2 in Oilers games when they have three or more days of rest, a win percentage of 0.857 across a sample size of 14. That pattern suggests Edmonton’s games on extra rest tend to produce high‑scoring affairs, a factor worth watching as the total line sits at 6.5 in the market.
The goalie matchup pits Connor Ingram in Edmonton against Joseph Woll in Toronto. Ingram’s save percentage sits at 0.895 with a goals‑against average of 2.59, while Woll posts a slightly higher save percentage of 0.903 and a goals‑against average of 3.14. Both starts are listed as unconfirmed, but the statistical contrast gives the Leafs a modest edge in net performance.
The pick is the Maple Leafs at +150, play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Connor Ingram (Oilers) and Joseph Woll (Maple Leafs) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | +150 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | -180 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | -145 | +0.9 | O 8.2 |
| EDM Edmonton Oilers | +145 | -0.9 | U 8.2 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-3.62): This factor contributes -3.62 to the projection, favoring Maple Leafs.
- Home Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
- Away Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Oilers.
Recent Trends
Oilers Trends:
- The over is 12-2 in Edmonton Oilers's games with 3+ days rest
- Edmonton Oilers is 3-11 ATS with 3+ days rest
- Edmonton Oilers is 1-4 straight up underdog
- The over is 1-4 in Edmonton Oilers's games on a 3+ game win streak
- The over is 11-5 in Edmonton Oilers's games at home after a loss
Maple Leafs Trends:
- The over is 8-2 in Toronto Maple Leafs's games in their last 10 games
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 2-6 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 2-7 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 7-13 straight up on the road after a win
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 4-8 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
Matchup Edges
Oilers
Advantages
- Strong 8-1-1 (3-1-1) overall record (89% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 4.6 GPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.883 save percentage
- Model win probability of only 41% despite home advantage
- Model sees 0.6-point edge favoring the away side
Maple Leafs
Advantages
- Strong 6-4-2 (4-3-1) record (60% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.6 GPG
- On a 3-game winning streak with rising confidence
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -3.62 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 3.2 GPG allowed on defense