Tampa Bay Lightning vs Utah Mammoth
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market moneyline heavily undervalues the Lightning, delivering a clear edge for bettors. The away side sits at +120, while the model projects a win probability of 0.587 for Tampa Bay, generating an edge of 0.132. The signal’s strength is labeled as a play, underscoring the confidence in the upside.
In the net duel, Utah’s starter Karel Vejmelka posts a .896 save percentage and a 2.69 goals‑against average, though his status remains unconfirmed. Tampa Bay counters with Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose .912 save percentage and 2.25 goals‑against average also sit unconfirmed. The contrast in save metrics suggests a modest advantage for the visiting netminder.
When Utah’s games are examined against sub‑.500 opponents, the over has covered 19 times in 26 outings, a 0.731 win percentage. The trend description reads “The over is 19-7 in Utah Mammoth’s games vs teams below .500,” indicating a strong tendency for higher scoring in those matchups.
Lightning +120 (play).
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Karel Vejmelka (Mammoth) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Tampa Bay Lightning | +120 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| UTA Utah Mammoth | -142 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Tampa Bay Lightning | -142 | +0.3 | O 7.1 |
| UTA Utah Mammoth | +142 | -0.3 | U 7.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+3.63): This factor contributes +3.63 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Home Ice (+1.00): This factor contributes +1.00 to the projection, favoring Mammoth.
- Rest Advantage (+1.00): The rest differential (1.00) gives Mammoth fresher legs, which typically matters most in second-half execution.
Recent Trends
Mammoth Trends:
- The over is 7-1 in Utah Mammoth's games with 3+ days rest
- Utah Mammoth is 1-5 ATS on a 3+ game win streak
- The over is 13-4 in Utah Mammoth's games at home after a loss
- Utah Mammoth is 11-22 ATS at home as a favorite
- The over is 19-7 in Utah Mammoth's games vs teams below .500
Lightning Trends:
- The over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on the road as an underdog
- The over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on the road on a back-to-back
- The over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games underdog
- Tampa Bay Lightning is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay Lightning's games on a back-to-back
Matchup Edges
Mammoth
Advantages
- Strong 7-4-0 (3-1-0) overall record (64% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 3.7 GPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.862 save percentage
- Model win probability of only 41% despite home advantage
- Model sees 1.2-point edge favoring the away side
Lightning
Advantages
- Strong 7-3-0 (5-0-0) record (70% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.4 GPG
- Home Streak contributes -1.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Averaging 2.9 GPG allowed on defense