Carolina Hurricanes vs St. Louis Blues
Saturday, October 24, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline edge, with the market pricing the Blues at +130 while the model projects a 0.593 win probability, delivering a 0.158 advantage.
The market versus model signal points to the Blues as the home side on a moneyline pick, offering a line of 130 and a model win probability of 0.593. The calculated edge of 0.158 meets the “play” strength, indicating the market is undervaluing St. Louis despite the favorable odds.
The goalie matchup pits Joel Hofer for the Blues against Brandon Bussi for the Hurricanes. Hofer holds a 0.911 save percentage and a 2.43 goals‑against‑average, while Bussi posts a 0.894 save percentage and a 2.51 goals‑against‑average. Both starters remain unconfirmed, but the numbers suggest a slight advantage in net for the home club.
The ATS trend signal highlights the Carolina Hurricanes’ recent form: after a loss they are 13‑2 straight up, a win percentage of 0.867 across a sample of 15 games. While impressive, this trend reflects straight‑up results, not against the spread, and does not directly counter the moneyline advantage identified earlier.
Pick: Blues at +130 play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Joel Hofer (Blues) and Brandon Bussi (Hurricanes) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR Carolina Hurricanes | -155 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | +130 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR Carolina Hurricanes | +146 | +0.9 | O 7.4 |
| STL St. Louis Blues | -146 | -0.9 | U 7.4 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Shots Per Game Diff (-6.80): This factor contributes -6.80 to the projection, favoring Hurricanes.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Home Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Blues.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-1.29): This factor contributes -1.29 to the projection, favoring Hurricanes.
Recent Trends
Blues Trends:
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS at home on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak
- St. Louis Blues is 6-0 ATS on a back-to-back
- St. Louis Blues is 13-3 ATS underdog
- The over is 5-1 in St. Louis Blues's games on a 3+ game losing streak
Hurricanes Trends:
- Carolina Hurricanes is 8-1 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Carolina Hurricanes is 13-2 straight up after a loss
- Carolina Hurricanes is 10-1 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Carolina Hurricanes is 5-1 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Carolina Hurricanes is 5-1 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
Blues
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 3.5 GPG
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.894 save percentage
- Allowing 3.1 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 41% model win probability
Hurricanes
Advantages
- Strong 8-2-2 (2-1-1) record (80% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 3.9 GPG
- Stout goaltending allowing just 2.7 GPG
- Road win rate of 75% -- proven road warriors
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -6.80 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Model win probability of just 41% on the road
- Averaging 2.7 GPG allowed on defense