New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the moneyline edge of 0.235, with the model assigning a 0.755 home win probability despite the -108 market line.
The market versus model signal highlights the Maple Leafs as the home side on the moneyline at -108, a pick strength of play, and an implied edge of 0.235 over the bookmaker. The model’s win probability of 0.755 suggests Toronto should be a clear favorite, making the -108 line an attractive proposition.
Against that backdrop, the ATS trend for Toronto is troubling. The Leafs have gone 3-15 against the spread at home when listed as a favorite, a win‑percentage of 0.167 over a sample of 18 games. That record underscores a pattern of failing to cover even when the odds look favorable.
The goalie matchup offers a mixed picture. Home netminder Joseph Woll posts a save percentage of 0.903 and a goals‑against average of 3.14, while visiting star Igor Shesterkin boasts a 0.913 save percentage and a 2.42 goals‑against average. Both confirmations are unverified, but the statistical edge favors the Rangers’ netminder.
Pick: Maple Leafs -108 play.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Joseph Woll (Maple Leafs) and Igor Shesterkin (Rangers) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR New York Rangers | -112 | -1.5 | O 6.5 |
| TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | -108 | +1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYR New York Rangers | +308 | +1.2 | O 6.5 |
| TOR Toronto Maple Leafs | -308 | -1.2 | U 6.5 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Maple Leafs.
- Shots Per Game Diff (+3.64): This factor contributes +3.64 to the projection, favoring Maple Leafs.
- Home Streak (+2.00): This factor contributes +2.00 to the projection, favoring Maple Leafs.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (-1.31): This factor contributes -1.31 to the projection, favoring Rangers.
Recent Trends
Maple Leafs Trends:
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 3-15 ATS at home as a favorite
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 3-15 ATS favorite
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 4-1 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 8-16 ATS at home after a loss
Rangers Trends:
- New York Rangers is 1-6 ATS with 3+ days rest
- New York Rangers is 1-5 ATS favorite
- The over is 1-6 in New York Rangers's games with 3+ days rest
- New York Rangers is 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games
- New York Rangers is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
Head-to-Head:
- Toronto Maple Leafs is 2-1 straight up vs New York Rangers
Matchup Edges
Maple Leafs
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Strong offense averaging 3.5 GPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +6.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Allowing 3.1 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 25% model win probability
- Combined opponent scoring of 3.0 GPG creates variance risk
Rangers
Advantages
- Strong 7-3-1 (6-0-0) record (70% win rate) this season
- Stout goaltending allowing just 2.2 GPG
- Strong goaltending with a 0.922 save percentage
- Faceoff Pct Diff contributes -1.31 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Model win probability of just 25% on the road