Anaheim Ducks vs New Jersey Devils
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this game is the goalie matchup.
Jacob Markstrom starts for the Devils while Lukas Dostal guards the net for the Ducks. Markstrom posts a 0.883 save percentage and a 2.95 goals‑against average; Dostal is marginally better on paper with a 0.885 save percentage and a 3.03 goals‑against average. Neither starter has been officially confirmed for the night, leaving the net‑minder question open but still the primary storyline.
The Devils enter the Prudential Center with a 5‑4‑0 overall record and a 4‑2‑0 mark at home, whereas the Ducks sit at 4‑5‑0 overall and a 1‑3‑0 road record. The model assigns a 0.654 probability to a New Jersey victory, projects a spread of –0.2 in favor of the home side, and lists a total of 6.1 goals. The market line is wider at –1.5, and the market total sits at 6.5, suggesting bookmakers see a slightly higher scoring environment. A spread edge of 1.2 points favors the model’s tighter line.
Given the lack of a clear betting line and the balanced yet unconfirmed goaltending picture, there is no line to take and no side to favor; the appropriate action is pass.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Jacob Markstrom (Devils) and Lukas Dostal (Ducks) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | +164 | +1.5 | O 6.5 |
| NJ New Jersey Devils | -198 | -1.5 | U 6.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANA Anaheim Ducks | +189 | +0.2 | O 6.1 |
| NJ New Jersey Devils | -189 | -0.2 | U 6.1 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Shots Per Game Diff (+11.56): This factor contributes +11.56 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Faceoff Pct Diff (+8.30): This factor contributes +8.30 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Market Total Signal (+6.50): This factor contributes +6.50 to the projection, favoring Devils.
- Away Streak (-4.00): This factor contributes -4.00 to the projection, favoring Ducks.
Recent Trends
With a 5-4-0 (4-2-0) record, Devils has been the definition of inconsistent. They've shown they can compete with top teams but have also been vulnerable.
Ducks comes in limping at 4-5-0 (1-3-0) this season. Road trips against quality opponents have been particularly unkind. A 4-game losing skid adds pressure to an already difficult road assignment.
Venue splits matter: Devils wins 67% at home while Ducks wins 60% on the road. The gap between home and away performance can be a decisive factor.
Matchup Edges
Devils
Advantages
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes +11.56 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -0.1 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Goaltending allows 3.3 GPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Goaltending concerns with a 0.876 save percentage
- Negative scoring margin of -0.1 GPG per game
Ducks
Advantages
- Road win rate of 60% -- proven road warriors
- Away Streak contributes -4.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.3 GPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Struggling with a 4-5-0 (1-3-0) record (44% win rate)
- 4-game losing streak compounds road challenges