Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor in this contest is the moneyline edge the market offers versus the model’s win probability. The market lists the Islanders at -115 on the moneyline, while the model assigns them an 0.882 probability of victory, generating an edge of 0.347 in favor of the home side. That advantage aligns with the “play” strength rating and signals a clear betting opportunity.
Offensively, the Islanders average 3.0 goals per game while conceding only 2.111, producing a positive margin of 0.889. The Kings, by contrast, score 2.429 and allow 3.857, leaving them with a negative margin of -1.428. The differential between the two teams’ margins sits at 2.317, underscoring the Islanders’ scoring superiority and the Kings’ defensive vulnerabilities.
Between the pipes, Ilya Sorokin guards the net for New York with a 0.913 save percentage and a 2.41 goals‑against average, whereas Darcy Kuemper backs Los Angeles at 0.898 and a 2.69 goals‑against average. Both starts are listed as unconfirmed, but the statistical gap still favors Sorokin’s steadier performance.
The pick is the Islanders at -115, a play. With the Islanders riding a strong home surge and the Kings struggling on the road, the odds reflect a genuine value.
Goalie Notice: This prediction assumes Ilya Sorokin (Islanders) and Darcy Kuemper (Kings) as the starting goalies. This is not yet confirmed -- if a different goalie starts, this pick will be voided.
Team Comparison
Starting Goalies
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Los Angeles Kings | -105 | +1.5 | O 5.5 |
| NYI New York Islanders | -115 | -1.5 | U 5.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Los Angeles Kings | +744 | -0.2 | O 5.4 |
| NYI New York Islanders | -744 | +0.2 | U 5.4 |
Our Picks
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+5.50): This factor contributes +5.50 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
- Shots Per Game Diff (-4.40): This factor contributes -4.40 to the projection, favoring Kings.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+2.32): Islanders's scoring margin advantage of 2.32 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+2.31): This factor contributes +2.31 to the projection, favoring Islanders.
Recent Trends
Islanders Trends:
- New York Islanders is 13-3 ATS underdog
- New York Islanders is 13-3 straight up underdog
- New York Islanders is 5-0 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- New York Islanders is 5-1 straight up at home on a back-to-back
- New York Islanders is 5-12 ATS at home as a favorite
Kings Trends:
- Los Angeles Kings is 9-2 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Los Angeles Kings is 15-6 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Los Angeles Kings is 12-4 ATS vs teams above .500
- Los Angeles Kings is 15-6 ATS underdog
- Los Angeles Kings is 7-14 straight up on the road as an underdog
Matchup Edges
Islanders
Advantages
- Strong 5-3-1 (4-1-0) overall record (62% win rate)
- Home ice advantage worth 0.3 goals in our model
- Elite goaltending allowing just 2.1 GPG
- Superior goaltending with a 0.929 save percentage
- Market Total Signal contributes +5.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Model sees 1.7-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 2.1 GPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 12% model win probability
Kings
Advantages
- Shots Per Game Diff contributes -4.40 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -1.4 GPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 12%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 0.3 goal of home ice advantage
- Struggling with a 1-4-2 (0-3-0) record (20% win rate)
- Goaltending allows 3.9 GPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 2.4 GPG limits scoring ceiling
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home