Wofford Terriers vs Queens University Royals
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the market’s 7.5‑point spread favoring Queens while the model values the game at a 6.1‑point Queens advantage, yielding a 13.64‑point edge for Wofford. The spread discrepancy alone creates a clear advantage for the Terriers, and the model’s edge calculation confirms that the line is significantly soft.
Queens shoots a respectable 34.579 % from beyond the arc and posts a 47.17 % field‑goal percentage overall. Wofford lags slightly, hitting 33.036 % of its three‑point attempts and converting 41.732 % of all shots. The modest gap in long‑range efficiency and overall shooting suggests Queens holds a marginal offensive edge, yet the disparity is not large enough to offset the spread mispricing.
Queens University Royals have been dominant in non‑conference play, posting a 20‑4 straight‑up record. That translates to an 0.833 win percentage over a 24‑game sample, underscoring the team’s ability to win outright when the schedule pits them against comparable opponents.
The pick is Wofford +7.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WOF Wofford Terriers | +763 | +7.5 | O 172.5 |
| QUC Queens University Royals | -763 | -7.5 | U 172.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| WOF Wofford Terriers | -181 | -6.1 | O 167.2 |
| QUC Queens University Royals | +181 | +6.1 | U 167.2 |
Our Picks
Play to -5.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+172.50): This factor contributes +172.50 to the projection, favoring Queens.
- Combined Tempo (+86.94): This factor contributes +86.94 to the projection, favoring Queens.
- Pace Mismatch (+31.25): A 31.25-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Queens's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (+24.00): The defensive scoring differential (24.00 PPG) favors Queens, who allows fewer points per game.
Recent Trends
Queens Trends:
- Queens University Royals is 11-2 straight up at home as a favorite
- Queens University Royals is 20-4 straight up in non-conference games
- Queens University Royals is 8-0 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- The over is 6-1 in Queens University Royals's games at home after a loss
- Queens University Royals is 11-2 straight up favorite
Wofford Trends:
- Wofford Terriers is 1-9 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Wofford Terriers is 0-5 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Wofford Terriers is 1-4 straight up on the road on a back-to-back
- Wofford Terriers is 15-40 straight up vs teams above .500
- Wofford Terriers is 17-34 straight up on the road after a win
Matchup Edges
Queens
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 87.2 PPG
- Home record of 100% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +172.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 102.2 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Model win probability of only 36% despite home advantage
- Negative scoring margin of -15.0 PPG per game
Wofford
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 80.0 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -16.75 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +1.8 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 78.2 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home
- Facing a home offense (87.2 PPG) that exceeds road defense (78.2 PPG) by 9.0