Stonehill Skyhawks vs 16 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The biggest story is the spread discrepancy between the market and the model. The market has set the spread at 40.5 for the away side, while the model projects a line of 30.0, creating an edge of 10.47 in favor of the underdog; the pick is marked as a play on Stonehill at the away side.
Texas Tech Red Raiders are a 31-0 straight‑up machine against any opponent below .500, a flawless record that translates to a win‑pct of 1.0 across a sample size of 31 games. That dominance underscores why the Red Raiders have never slipped against sub‑.500 competition.
Texas Tech averages 78.667 points while allowing 59.333, posting a margin of 19.333. Stonehill, by contrast, scores 67.333 points on average and concedes 71.333, yielding a margin of –4.0. The differential between the two teams’ margins sits at 23.333, highlighting a substantial gap in both offense and defense.
Stonehill +40.5 is a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STO Stonehill Skyhawks | +5817091 | +40.5 | O 142.5 |
| TTU Texas Tech Red Raiders | -5817091 | -40.5 | U 142.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STO Stonehill Skyhawks | +2134 | +30 | O 146 |
| TTU Texas Tech Red Raiders | -2134 | -30 | U 146 |
Our Picks
Play to +30.8
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+142.50): This factor contributes +142.50 to the projection, favoring Texas Tech.
- Combined Tempo (+69.17): This factor contributes +69.17 to the projection, favoring Texas Tech.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+25.48): This factor contributes +25.48 to the projection, favoring Texas Tech.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+23.33): Texas Tech's scoring margin advantage of 23.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Texas Tech Trends:
- Texas Tech Red Raiders is 59-4 straight up in non-conference games
- Texas Tech Red Raiders is 31-0 straight up vs teams below .500
- Texas Tech Red Raiders is 62-7 straight up after a win
- Texas Tech Red Raiders is 92-17 straight up home
- Texas Tech Red Raiders is 88-16 straight up with 2+ days rest
Stonehill Trends:
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 1-14 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 1-21 straight up vs teams above .500
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 6-38 straight up in non-conference games
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 7-41 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Stonehill Skyhawks is 14-61 straight up away
Matchup Edges
Texas Tech
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 78.7 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 71% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 67.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (59.3 PPG) by 8.0
- Model sees 10.5-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 59.3 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Stonehill
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -12.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -4.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 4%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-0) record (33% win rate)
- Turnover issues at 15.3 per game, amplified in road environments
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (78.7 PPG) that exceeds road defense (71.3 PPG) by 7.3