Montana Grizzlies vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile tilts heavily toward Montana, making it the single most important angle in this contest.
North Dakota has managed a three‑point percentage of 25.333 and an overall field‑goal percentage of 39.891, while Montana is shooting 38.462 from beyond the arc and 47.159 from the field. The disparity of more than ten points in each category signals a clear offensive edge for the Grizzlies.
Scoring trends reinforce the shooting gap. North Dakota averages 73.333 points while allowing 89.0, yielding a margin of –15.667. Montana scores 77.333 and concedes only 63.333, producing a positive margin of 14.0. The combined margin gap stands at –29.667, underscoring Montana’s superior efficiency on both ends.
The market line sits at +102 for Montana, yet the model assigns a win probability of 0.656, generating an edge of 0.161 over the bookmaker. This favorable discrepancy, paired with the strength designation of play, suggests the market is undervaluing the Grizzlies. Both teams sit at 1‑2, but Montana’s lone conference win (1‑0) gives it a slight edge in motivation.
Montana is the play at +102 – play. The contest at the Betty Engelstad Sioux Center in Grand Forks, ND, further favors the visitor’s hot hand.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONT Montana Grizzlies | +102 | +1.5 | O 150.5 |
| UND North Dakota Fighting Hawks | -122 | -1.5 | U 150.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MONT Montana Grizzlies | -190 | -4.4 | O 150.7 |
| UND North Dakota Fighting Hawks | +190 | +4.4 | U 150.7 |
Our Picks
Play to -3.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+150.50): This factor contributes +150.50 to the projection, favoring North Dakota.
- Combined Tempo (+75.75): This factor contributes +75.75 to the projection, favoring North Dakota.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-29.67): Montana's scoring margin advantage of 29.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-29.40): This factor contributes -29.40 to the projection, favoring Montana.
Recent Trends
North Dakota Trends:
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks is 6-0 ATS at home after a loss
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks is 6-0 ATS after a loss
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks is 5-14 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks is 5-2 straight up at home as a favorite
- North Dakota Fighting Hawks is 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games
Montana Trends:
- The over is 1-8 in Montana Grizzlies's games with 3+ days rest
- Montana Grizzlies is 0-5 straight up vs ranked opponents
- Montana Grizzlies is 8-25 straight up in non-conference games
- Montana Grizzlies is 1-4 ATS favorite
- Montana Grizzlies is 4-10 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
Matchup Edges
North Dakota
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Market Total Signal contributes +150.50 points to home projection
- Net scoring margin of -15.7 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (0-0) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 89.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Model win probability of only 34% despite home advantage
Montana
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 77.3 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 63.3 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -29.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-0) record (33% win rate)
- Road win rate of only 20% away from home
- Facing a home offense (73.3 PPG) that exceeds road defense (63.3 PPG) by 10.0