UL Monroe Warhawks vs Grand Canyon Lopes
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The most important angle is the shooting profile contrast, with Grand Canyon posting a field‑goal percentage of 50.971 % and a three‑point rate of 31.395 % while UL Monroe trails at 41.796 % from the floor and 34.307 % beyond the arc. That disparity signals a clear efficiency advantage for the home squad and a reliance on lower‑percentage looks for the visitors.
Scoring margins underscore the gap: Grand Canyon averages 100.333 points while allowing just 77.0, yielding a +23.333 margin, whereas UL Monroe scores 79.6 and yields 87.6, a –8.0 margin. The resulting differential of 31.333 points aligns with the spread disparity and highlights how the Antelopes have been out‑performed on both offense and defense.
The market line sits at 31.5 points for UL Monroe, yet the model projects a spread of 24.6 points in Grand Canyon’s favor, creating a spread edge of 6.88. The market’s larger line suggests bookmakers expect a wider gap than the algorithm predicts, offering a notable advantage for the underdog side.
The pick is UL Monroe +31.5 on the spread – a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULM UL Monroe Warhawks | +5000 | +32.5 | O 165.5 |
| GCU Grand Canyon Lopes | -100000 | -32.5 | U 165.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULM UL Monroe Warhawks | +667 | +24.6 | O 179.9 |
| GCU Grand Canyon Lopes | -667 | -24.6 | U 179.9 |
Our Picks
Play to +25.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+164.50): This factor contributes +164.50 to the projection, favoring Grand Canyon.
- Combined Tempo (+86.13): This factor contributes +86.13 to the projection, favoring Grand Canyon.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+32.18): This factor contributes +32.18 to the projection, favoring Grand Canyon.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+31.33): Grand Canyon's scoring margin advantage of 31.33 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
Grand Canyon Trends:
- Grand Canyon Lopes is 81-11 straight up in non-conference games
- Grand Canyon Lopes is 28-4 straight up at home after a loss
- Grand Canyon Lopes is 86-15 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Grand Canyon Lopes is 89-16 straight up home
- Grand Canyon Lopes is 42-4 straight up vs teams below .500
UL Monroe Trends:
- UL Monroe Warhawks is 3-31 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- UL Monroe Warhawks is 1-17 straight up on the road as an underdog
- UL Monroe Warhawks is 7-46 straight up vs teams above .500
- UL Monroe Warhawks is 8-48 straight up after a loss
- UL Monroe Warhawks is 15-68 straight up away
Matchup Edges
Grand Canyon
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 100.3 PPG
- 4-day rest advantage over opponent's 2 days
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
Disadvantages
- Defense allows 77.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Model sees 6.9-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 77.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
UL Monroe
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 79.6 PPG
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -10.60 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -8.0 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-4 (1-1) record (20% win rate)
- Defense allows 87.6 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments
- 3-game losing streak compounds road challenges