UAB Blazers vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Sunday, November 15, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The decisive factor is the moneyline edge of 0.18, with the market offering Jax State +142 despite a model win probability of 0.594. The market versus model signal shows the home side as the clear value play, the market line sitting at 142 while the model projects a 59.4 % chance of victory, generating an edge of 0.18 for the Gamecocks.
The ATS trend signal underscores Jacksonville State’s dominance against sub‑.500 competition, posting a 31‑8 straight‑up record when facing teams below .500. That translates to a win‑pct of 0.795 over a sample size of 39 games, highlighting a proven ability to capitalize on weaker opponents.
The shooting profile signal paints a favorable picture for the home team on the perimeter and overall efficiency. Jax State is shooting 38.835 % from three‑point range compared with UAB’s 37.143 %, and its field‑goal percentage stands at 43.216 % versus the visitors’ 40.884 %. Those numbers suggest a modest but tangible advantage in scoring execution.
The pick is Jax State at +142, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAB UAB Blazers | -162 | -3.5 | O 149.5 |
| JXST Jacksonville State Gamecocks | +136 | +3.5 | U 149.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAB UAB Blazers | +146 | +2.4 | O 163 |
| JXST Jacksonville State Gamecocks | -146 | -2.4 | U 163 |
Our Picks
Play to -3.2
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+149.50): This factor contributes +149.50 to the projection, favoring Jax State.
- Combined Tempo (+79.08): This factor contributes +79.08 to the projection, favoring Jax State.
- Pace Mismatch (+5.67): A 5.67-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Jax State's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+3.00): Jax State's per-game scoring advantage (3.00 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Jax State Trends:
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks is 31-8 straight up vs teams below .500
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks is 28-13 straight up at home after a loss
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks is 4-1 ATS underdog
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks is 44-20 straight up with 3+ days rest
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks is 35-16 straight up in non-conference games
UAB Trends:
- The over is 0-6 in UAB Blazers's games on the road after a win
- UAB Blazers is 6-1 ATS on the road as an underdog
- UAB Blazers is 9-1 straight up in their last 10 games
- UAB Blazers is 6-1 straight up on the road as an underdog
- The over is 0-6 in UAB Blazers's games after a win
Matchup Edges
Jax State
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +149.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-0) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 78.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Allowing 78.0 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
UAB
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 80.0 PPG
- 6-day rest advantage over opponent's 4 days
- Road win rate of 75% -- proven road warriors
- Rest Advantage contributes -2.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 75.3 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Facing a home offense (83.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (75.3 PPG) by 7.7