St. Thomas Tommies vs Army Black Knights
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The market spread of +7.5 for Army is wildly out of line with the model’s –7.7 projection, creating a –15.23 edge that makes the home side the clear value play. The discrepancy between the bookmaker’s line and the algorithmic assessment signals a mispricing that should not be ignored.
St. Thomas‑Minnesota has struggled against stronger opponents, posting a 7‑34 straight‑up record versus teams above .500. That 0.171 win percentage over a 41‑game sample underscores the Tommies’ difficulty in handling quality competition, reinforcing the expectation that they will not keep the game close.
Offensively, Army’s shooting percentages are nearly identical to St. Thomas’s from three‑point range, with 36.667 % versus 36.134 %. However, the Black Knights edge ahead in overall field‑goal efficiency at 44.022 % compared with the Tommies’ 47.009 %, suggesting a slight advantage in scoring consistency that could translate into a comfortable margin.
The pick is Army +7.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMN St. Thomas Tommies | -355 | -7.5 | O 148.5 |
| ARMY Army Black Knights | +280 | +7.5 | U 148.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| STMN St. Thomas Tommies | +221 | +7.7 | O 158.1 |
| ARMY Army Black Knights | -221 | -7.7 | U 158.1 |
Our Picks
Play to -8.5
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+148.50): This factor contributes +148.50 to the projection, favoring Army.
- Combined Tempo (+74.69): This factor contributes +74.69 to the projection, favoring Army.
- Pace Mismatch (-24.75): A 24.75-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with St Thomas's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Allowed Differential (-15.33): The defensive scoring differential (15.33 PPG) favors St Thomas, who allows fewer points per game.
Recent Trends
Army Trends:
- Army Black Knights is 1-4 ATS at home as a favorite
- The over is 4-1 in Army Black Knights's games at home as a favorite
- Army Black Knights is 1-4 ATS favorite
- Army Black Knights is 3-9 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Army Black Knights is 2-7 ATS in conference games
St Thomas Trends:
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 3-15 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 7-34 straight up vs teams above .500
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 1-6 straight up on a 3+ game losing streak
- The over is 8-2 in St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies's games vs teams below .500
- St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies is 4-1 ATS after a loss
Matchup Edges
Army
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Elite defense allowing just 62.7 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +148.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-0) (33% win rate)
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 83.8 PPG offense exceeds home defense (62.7 PPG) by 21.1
St Thomas (MN)
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 83.8 PPG
- Pace Mismatch contributes -24.75 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of +5.8 PPG per game
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Defense allows 78.0 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home