Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs Colorado State Rams
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Colorado State’s superior shooting percentages set the tone for this contest. The Rams convert on 52.121 % of field‑goal attempts and knock down 36.364 % from three‑point range, while Loyola Chicago lags at 47.264 % overall and 29.412 % beyond the arc. Those disparities underscore a clear advantage in offensive efficiency for the home side.
Colorado State’s track record against sub‑.500 opponents is overwhelming: a 34‑4 straight‑up record translates to an 89.5 % win rate over a 38‑game sample. That dominance suggests the Rams are accustomed to handling teams that struggle to stay above the .500 mark, a category that includes Loyola Chicago’s 2‑1 standing.
The market line places Loyola Chicago at +9.5 points, but the model values the spread at only 6.2 points in Colorado State’s favor, generating a 3.32‑point edge for the road team. The strength attached to this signal is a “play,” reinforcing confidence that the underdog can cover the inflated spread.
The pick is Loyola Chicago +9.5, a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUC Loyola Chicago Ramblers | +350 | +9.5 | O 151.5 |
| CSU Colorado State Rams | -455 | -9.5 | U 151.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LUC Loyola Chicago Ramblers | +246 | +6.2 | O 165 |
| CSU Colorado State Rams | -246 | -6.2 | U 165 |
Our Picks
Play to +6.9
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+151.50): This factor contributes +151.50 to the projection, favoring Colorado St.
- Combined Tempo (+76.58): This factor contributes +76.58 to the projection, favoring Colorado St.
- Home Streak (+3.00): This factor contributes +3.00 to the projection, favoring Colorado St.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+1.11): This factor contributes +1.11 to the projection, favoring Colorado St.
Recent Trends
Colorado St Trends:
- Colorado State Rams is 34-4 straight up vs teams below .500
- Colorado State Rams is 51-12 straight up after a win
- Colorado State Rams is 14-3 straight up at home as a favorite
- Colorado State Rams is 24-5 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Colorado State Rams is 9-0 straight up double-digit favorite
Loyola Chicago Trends:
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers is 2-17 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 games
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers is 1-6 straight up double-digit underdog
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers is 3-10 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Loyola Chicago Ramblers is 3-10 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
Colorado St
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 83.0 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Home record of 71% win rate at this venue
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 82.0 PPG offense exceeds home defense (70.7 PPG) by 11.3
- Model sees 3.3-point edge favoring the away side
- Allowing 70.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
Loyola Chicago
Advantages
- Strong 2-1 (2-0) record (67% win rate) this season
- Potent offense averaging 82.0 PPG
- Away Streak contributes -1.00 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Road win rate of only 17% away from home
- Facing a home offense (83.0 PPG) that exceeds road defense (70.7 PPG) by 12.3