Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
South Carolina’s superior shooting profile dominates this matchup. The Gamecocks convert on 41.071 % of their three‑point attempts while Gardner‑Webb manages only 31.507 %. From the field, South Carolina shoots 47.712 % overall compared with the 35.065 % posted by Gardner‑Webb, underscoring a clear edge in offensive efficiency.
Scoring margins reinforce the disparity. South Carolina averages 78.667 points per game and yields just 54.667, producing a home margin of 24.0. In contrast, Gardner‑Webb scores 61.333 points while allowing 83.333, resulting in an away margin of –22.0. The gap between the two teams sits at 46.0, highlighting the Gamecocks’ dominance on both ends of the floor.
The market spread of –27.5 sits well beneath the model’s projection of –33.8, creating a spread edge of –6.31 in South Carolina’s favor. This discrepancy signals value for bettors, as the market line underestimates the expected differential between the squads.
The pick is South Carolina –27.5, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GWEB Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | +3500 | +27.5 | O 145.5 |
| SC South Carolina Gamecocks | -20000 | -27.5 | U 145.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| GWEB Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs | +1062 | +33.8 | O 140 |
| SC South Carolina Gamecocks | -1062 | -33.8 | U 140 |
Our Picks
Play to -34.6
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+145.50): This factor contributes +145.50 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- Combined Tempo (+69.50): This factor contributes +69.50 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (+48.70): This factor contributes +48.70 to the projection, favoring South Carolina.
- Scoring Margin Differential (+46.00): South Carolina's scoring margin advantage of 46.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
Recent Trends
South Carolina Trends:
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 3-19 straight up at home vs a ranked opponent
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 44-9 straight up in non-conference games
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 33-6 straight up vs teams below .500
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 3-19 straight up vs ranked opponents
- South Carolina Gamecocks is 8-0 straight up double-digit favorite
Gardner-Webb Trends:
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs is 4-28 straight up after a loss vs a winning team
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs is 1-16 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs is 8-46 straight up vs teams above .500
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs is 6-37 straight up in non-conference games
- Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs is 1-16 straight up underdog
Matchup Edges
South Carolina
Advantages
- Strong 3-0 (3-0) overall record (100% win rate)
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 78.7 PPG
- Riding a 3-game winning streak with strong momentum
- Elite defense allowing just 54.7 PPG
Disadvantages
- Opponent's 61.3 PPG offense exceeds home defense (54.7 PPG) by 6.7
- Allowing 54.7 PPG on defense leaves room for opponent scoring
- Opponent still holds a 9% model win probability
Gardner-Webb
Advantages
- Points Allowed Differential contributes -28.67 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -22.0 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 9%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-0) record (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 83.3 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Anemic offense at just 61.3 PPG limits scoring ceiling
- Turnover issues at 16.0 per game, amplified in road environments