Yale Bulldogs vs Northeastern Huskies
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
The shooting profile gives the clearest edge in this contest, with Northeastern posting a 47.159 % field‑goal conversion while Yale lags at 40.449 % and the Bulldogs outshooting the Huskies from deep at 36.0 % versus 28.125 % for the home side. The disparity in overall efficiency favors the Huskies, even as Yale’s perimeter success could keep the game close.
Yale’s ATS history underscores a glaring weakness: the Bulldogs are 0‑9 ATS against opponents above .500, a perfect‑scoreless record in nine attempts that translates to a 0.0 % win‑percentage in that specific betting slice. The trend suggests that despite any on‑court resilience, Yale has consistently failed to cover spreads when facing stronger competition.
The market versus the model reinforces the moneyline tilt toward Northeastern. The sportsbook offers a home line of 102, while the model assigns a 58.8 % win probability and calculates an edge of 0.093 for the Huskies. The market line aligns with the model’s confidence, and the spread discrepancy further highlights Northeastern’s advantage.
Pick: Northeastern at 102, play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE Yale Bulldogs | -135 | -2.5 | O 154.5 |
| NE Northeastern Huskies | +114 | +2.5 | U 154.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| YALE Yale Bulldogs | +143 | +3.6 | O 146.3 |
| NE Northeastern Huskies | -143 | -3.6 | U 146.3 |
Our Picks
Play to -4.4
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+154.50): This factor contributes +154.50 to the projection, favoring Northeastern.
- Combined Tempo (+78.17): This factor contributes +78.17 to the projection, favoring Northeastern.
- Pace Mismatch (+14.67): A 14.67-point pace mismatch could shape the game's flow, with Northeastern's preferred tempo likely to dominate.
- Points Per Game Differential (+7.67): Northeastern's per-game scoring advantage (7.67 PPG) indicates a more productive offense.
Recent Trends
Northeastern Trends:
- Northeastern Huskies is 1-8 ATS in conference games
- Northeastern Huskies is 1-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Northeastern Huskies is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 7-1 in Northeastern Huskies's games underdog
- The over is 5-1 in Northeastern Huskies's games after a loss vs a winning team
Yale Trends:
- Yale Bulldogs is 1-8 ATS on the road after a win
- Yale Bulldogs is 0-9 ATS vs teams above .500
- Yale Bulldogs is 0-5 ATS on the road as an underdog
- Yale Bulldogs is 0-5 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Yale Bulldogs is 1-8 ATS after a win
Matchup Edges
Northeastern
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 77.0 PPG
- Market Total Signal contributes +154.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-0) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 86.7 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Poor home record at just 25% win rate at this venue
Yale
Advantages
- Away Streak contributes -2.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -10.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 41%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-0) record (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 79.7 PPG -- exploitable on the road
- Road win rate of only 25% away from home