West Florida Argonauts vs Cleveland State Vikings
Friday, November 13, 2026
Matchup Analysis
West Florida’s superior three‑point shooting makes the biggest difference. The Argonauts hit 39.64 % from beyond the arc while the Flames managed just 27.273 %; on closer range the Flames posted a 51.176 % field‑goal percentage compared with West Florida’s 47.387 %. The contrast in efficiency from distance is stark and points to a clear advantage for the visiting squad.
Scoring margins widen the gap further. Cleveland State averages 77.333 points while allowing 95.0, yielding a –17.667 margin. West Florida scores 98.75 points per game and concedes only 67.75, posting a +31.0 margin. The differential between the two programs sits at –48.667, underscoring the Flames’ offensive firepower and defensive solidity relative to the home team.
The betting market also leans heavily toward the Argonauts. The moneyline is listed at +154 for West Florida, and the model assigns the visitors a 0.644 win probability, delivering a modest 0.25 edge over the market. The signal’s strength is classified as “play,” indicating confidence in the upside of the pick.
The pick is West Florida on the moneyline at +154 – play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UWF West Florida Argonauts | +154 | +4.5 | O 152.5 |
| CLE Cleveland State Vikings | -185 | -4.5 | U 152.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| UWF West Florida Argonauts | -181 | -1.8 | O 176.1 |
| CLE Cleveland State Vikings | +181 | +1.8 | U 176.1 |
Our Picks
Play to -1.1
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+152.50): This factor contributes +152.50 to the projection, favoring Cleveland St.
- Combined Tempo (+84.71): This factor contributes +84.71 to the projection, favoring Cleveland St.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-48.67): West Florida's scoring margin advantage of 48.67 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-40.56): This factor contributes -40.56 to the projection, favoring West Florida.
Recent Trends
Cleveland St Trends:
- Cleveland State Vikings is 45-11 straight up vs teams below .500
- Cleveland State Vikings is 13-1 straight up on a 3+ game win streak
- Cleveland State Vikings is 1-5 ATS after a loss vs a winning team
- Cleveland State Vikings is 66-24 straight up with 2+ days rest
- Cleveland State Vikings is 32-13 straight up at home after a loss
Matchup Edges
Cleveland St
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Strong offense averaging 77.3 PPG
- 4-day rest advantage over opponent's 1 days
- Market Total Signal contributes +152.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-0) (33% win rate)
- Defense allows 95.0 PPG -- a vulnerability opponents exploit
- Poor home record at just 40% win rate at this venue
- Opponent's 98.8 PPG offense exceeds home defense (95.0 PPG) by 3.8
West Florida
Advantages
- Potent offense averaging 98.8 PPG
- Stout defense allowing just 67.8 PPG
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -48.67 points favoring away
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- On a back-to-back with only 1 day of rest for a road game
- Facing a home offense (77.3 PPG) that exceeds road defense (67.8 PPG) by 9.6