Marist Red Foxes vs Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Saturday, November 14, 2026
Matchup Analysis
Marist’s superior shooting profile dominates the narrative, as its 38.182 % three‑point conversion and 43.312 % field‑goal efficiency eclipse Lehigh’s 25.758 % from deep and 36.585 % overall. The gap in long‑range accuracy alone suggests the Red Foxes can outpace the Mountain Hawks in a game that will likely hinge on perimeter firepower.
Lehigh, however, carries a strong ATS pedigree in conference play, posting a 10‑2 record against the spread with an 0.833 win‑percentage over a 12‑game sample. The Mountain Hawks’ ability to cover in familiar settings provides a counterbalance to the raw shooting disparity, indicating that the home crowd and conference familiarity could keep the contest tighter than the numbers alone imply.
The market line of 1.5 in favor of Marist sits below the model’s projected spread of –1.8 for Lehigh, generating an edge of 3.28 points for the away side. This divergence between bookmaker and algorithm reinforces the strength signal of “play,” confirming that the spread line undervalues Marist’s scoring potential.
Marist +1.5 is a play.
Team Comparison
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | +110 | +1.5 | O 132.5 |
| LEH Lehigh Mountain Hawks | -130 | -1.5 | U 132.5 |
Model Projection
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRST Marist Red Foxes | -114 | -1.8 | O 134.7 |
| LEH Lehigh Mountain Hawks | +114 | +1.8 | U 134.7 |
Our Picks
Play to -1
Key Matchup Factors
Key Matchup Factors:
- Market Total Signal (+132.50): This factor contributes +132.50 to the projection, favoring Lehigh.
- Combined Tempo (+69.75): This factor contributes +69.75 to the projection, favoring Lehigh.
- Scoring Margin Differential (-9.00): Marist's scoring margin advantage of 9.00 points per game is one of the strongest statistical signals in this matchup.
- SOS-Adjusted Margin (-8.70): This factor contributes -8.70 to the projection, favoring Marist.
Recent Trends
Lehigh Trends:
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 7-0 ATS vs teams above .500
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 10-2 ATS in conference games
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 7-1 ATS underdog
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 1-4 ATS in non-conference games
Marist Trends:
- Marist Red Foxes is 1-8 straight up on the road as an underdog
- Marist Red Foxes is 1-8 straight up underdog
- Marist Red Foxes is 2-7 ATS on the road as an underdog
- The over is 5-1 in Marist Red Foxes's games in non-conference games
- Marist Red Foxes is 2-7 ATS underdog
Head-to-Head:
- Lehigh Mountain Hawks is 3-1 straight up vs Marist Red Foxes
Matchup Edges
Lehigh
Advantages
- Home court advantage worth 3.5 points in our model
- Home record of 75% win rate at this venue
- Market Total Signal contributes +132.50 points to home projection
Disadvantages
- Sub-.500 record at 1-2 (1-1) (33% win rate)
- Limited offense averaging just 64.3 PPG
- Model win probability of only 47% despite home advantage
Marist
Advantages
- Scoring Margin Differential contributes -9.00 points favoring away
- Net scoring margin of -0.3 PPG per game
- Model-projected win probability of 53%
Disadvantages
- Playing on the road, sacrificing 3.5 point of home court advantage
- Struggling with a 1-2 (1-1) record (33% win rate)
- Turnover issues at 15.0 per game, amplified in road environments